The single biggest challenge facing the world today is not how to counter or slow the spread of Covid-19. Rather, it is the overriding question of how to respond effectively to the pandemic in a way that doesn’t cause more damage, in terms of lives lost or destroyed, than the disease itself.
This doesn’t mean that we should put economic growth and profits ahead of saving lives. But as we edge closer to a global shutdown of country borders, we need to consider what a balanced and proportionate response should look like. This is not a matter of being cavalier or not taking the health threat seriously. Concerted efforts to contain and combat the virus will save many thousands of lives. But avoiding a global economic meltdown will also save lives, possibly many more. Somehow, we need to achieve both.
Learning from experience is always a good start. Hammered by the MERS outbreak in 2015, South Korea has proven that early and decisive action can make a huge difference. A combination of widespread testing, including drive-through centres, and case tracking using AI technology, has helped keep the fatality rate under 1%. It has 633 testing sites nationwide and the ability to test 20,000 people per day.
By comparison, the US had conducted only 14,000 tests by mid-March, according to an investigation by The Atlantic. As the WHO chief says, we need to test, test and test.
It’s also about making smart calls. Several countries, including the Australia and the UK, have decided, at least for now, to buck the trend to close schools. They figure that given the impact on the majority of youngsters seems to be negligible, the bigger risk is that many working parents, including doctors, nurses and other vital medical personnel, would have to stay at home to look after the kids.
Travel restrictions are a critical weapon in containing the spread – at the right time and for fixed periods – but not blanket bans, applied indiscriminately and without consultation. They offer limited value once the virus has established a foothold. Airlines are already on their knees and, according to the Centre for Aviation, most will be bankrupt by the end of May. Rather than banning flights, why not ramp up pre and post flight testing or selectively offer passengers the option of a 14-day isolation period so that essential travel can still go ahead and airlines can continue to operate, albeit at reduced levels.
While a recession seems inevitable, we need to do everything we can to stem the haemorrhaging, including targeted support for the hardest hit sectors. The tourism and hospitality industry, for instance, contributes 10.4% of global GDP and employs 319 million people. The impact on it alone could send the world economy into a tailspin. Even the world’s digital giants are facing challenges. Although it has enjoyed a huge surge in demand, Amazon has been forced to ban hundreds of thousands of products offering false promises of a Covid-19 cure as well as trying to prevent price-gouging on face masks and hand sanitisers.
To date, governments and central banks have reached into their old bag of tricks, cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into the system. But it will take a wider and more innovative mix of stimulus and compensation measures this time round to get the world economy off life-support. One forward looking option would be to help companies leverage new technologies and advance their digital platforms where possible to help cope with future outbreaks.
The good news is that most politicians, including the world’s biggest laggard Donald Trump, finally seem to be heeding the message of the WHO to learn from countries like South Korea, to act quickly and decisively to avoid a devastating spike in cases. But in doing so, we also need to keep an eye on the bigger picture. Let’s flatten the curve, not the country.
Some leaders have invoked war-time scenarios in the fight against Covid-19, calling on citizens to make sacrifices for the better of the country. To them I say: why win the battle only to lose the war?