Could Trump walk away from the contest?

With early polls suggesting Donald Trump may become the fourth incumbent President since the second world war to fail to win a second term, several questions loom. How far is the Trump camp willing to go to turn the campaign around? If Joe Biden continues to grow his double-digit lead over Trump, is there a point at which the GOP might consider a change of leadership strategy? And if a heavy loss seemed inevitable, would Trump, bizarre as it may sound, consider walking away from the contest?

Let’s deal with the givens first.  There’s no doubt Team Trump will try every trick in the book, from disinformation campaigns about the Bidens to voter suppression and even foreign interference, if John Bolton is to be believed, to win re-election. Trump’s repeated unsubstantiated allegations about Obamagate and divisive language about the Black Lives Matter movement are just a taste of what’s to come.

While several conservative senators have openly criticised Trump in recent weeks, most are sitting firmly on their hands, knowing just how vindictive Trump can be with anyone who doesn’t display total loyalty to the cause. A few more voices of dissent may emerge if the coronavirus continues to spiral out of control. The Republican National Convention, rescheduled to August 24, shapes as a pivotal meeting if Trump’s poll numbers and the economy continue to tank.

We also know that if Trump does see it through, a loss wouldn’t be his fault. The blame would be sheeted home to everyone and everything from the litigious Democrats and the corrupt media to Chinese aggression and Chinese flu, WHO incompetence, social media censorship and, of course, the shadowy Deep State.

And we know he would refuse to accept the outcome. Trump has already begun constructing his case for a rigged election with baseless allegations of mail vote fraud and other imagined irregularities. But the question remains: will he have the stomach for the battle if he feels he cannot win?    

Trump was drawn to the presidential race in 2016 by the lure of landing the most powerful gig on the planet. His boundless hubris could again persuade him that only a man of his extraordinary talents could overcome the odds and win again. But in 2020, those odds are imposing: an economy roiled by social upheaval and the relentless coronavirus, an experienced opponent well ahead in the polls and the prospect of more defectors, emboldened by Bolton’s tell-all book.

When thrown an alley-oop this week by Fox News’ Sean Hannity about his vision versus that of Biden, Trump fluffed his part, waffling about talent versus experience. Disturbingly for his GOP colleagues, less than five months out from the November poll, Trump appeared bereft of any sort of vision or policy agenda beyond his usual slogans and taunts.

Perplexed that he is not loved, Trump, like a petulant child, appears to be losing interest and resigned to defeat. It might simply be a blip, or even a ruse to instil over-confidence in the opposition camp. But we know that Trump has an abhorrence for losing and would do anything to avoid the ignominy of a crushing first-term defeat. Could that bring him to walk away from the re-election campaign as he might a failed property development?  

Either way, if Trump is out of the White House by year-end, history will not be kind to those Republicans who suppressed their instincts and values to ride the Trump train to one-term oblivion. For many of us, it wouldn’t be so much a moral victory, more a sense of relief.