Why is the world reacting so irrationally to the Covid-19 outbreak? While we still have a lot to learn about the virus, we do know this much:
- It will continue to spread across the globe despite travel bans because it is highly contagious and many, if not most, suffer only mild common flu-like symptoms and recover.
- For now, the WHO advises the mortality rate is about 3%, based on reported cases. This is many times higher than the rate for common flu but significantly less than SARS in 2003 (9.6%).
- That said, the number of cases globally is likely to be massively under-reported because people are either unaware they have it or don’t want to spend 14 days in quarantine.
So why are we panic buying toilet rolls in supermarkets? Why are we shunning Chinese restaurants? Why are we derailing business, trade, education, leisure and so many aspects of life? Why are we inflicting billions of dollars of unnecessary collateral damage on ourselves, rather than getting on with life and applying sensible measures to minimise the risk of infection?
I think the answer becomes clearer when you examine the actions and motives of the key players.
WHO. The World Health Organisation knows better than most that there are far more deadly threats to humanity. Malnutrition, for example, kills a person every four seconds. Mosquito-borne diseases like dengue have been growing alarmingly, with 390 million cases each year. While WHO works assiduously to combat these challenges, they don’t garner much attention. At the same time, WHO needs to prove its worth to continue to be funded, primarily by governments and foundations. Epidemics and pandemics are big news and provide an unrivalled platform for WHO to demonstrate its invaluable role as the planet’s doctor. So why not leverage them?
Governments. SARStaught us that the most effective way to fight epidemics is through global and regional cooperation. However the recent drift towards nationalism flies in the face of such a collaborative approach. Governments are also hard-wired not to offend electorates, even when a firmer hand is required. Some political leaders have had the courage to explain that face masks are required only by the infected and medical workers. Most in Asia however are reluctant to challenge the deep-seated but flawed view that masks are an essential weapon against transmission.
China. Although there was some justifiable criticism of China’s initial reluctance to announce the outbreak, the central government should be commended for its incredibly resolute efforts to contain the disease. Locking down an entire city or province, and building a hospital in a matter of days, wouldn’t and couldn’t happen in many other parts of the world. In time, we might find that quarantining millions in a city (or on a cruise ship) without sufficient facilities or resources only exacerbates the level of transmission. But China’s actions bought the world more time to analyse the genetic make-up of the virus and prepare for its spread.
Mainstream media. Traditional media, sadly, is fighting a battle for relevance and credibility, triggered by social media, self-serving proprietors and antagonistic politicians. In many ways, for global networks like CNN, Al Jazeera and the BBC, a pandemic is a godsend. Although it may soften advertising demand, it also draws millions of new viewers and reinforces the networks’ capacity to provide continuous, quick, accurate (and occasionally overblown) updates about the spread of the disease. So why not leverage it?
Social media. Social media is an unregulated and unprincipled juggernaut. Since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak in January, it has spawned all manner of misinformation and conspiracy theories, fuelling fear and disturbing levels of Sinophobia, as well as a raging black market in masks and other protective gear. Rumours about disrupted supply chains have triggered panic buying of everything from toilet paper to rice.
So how do we stop the panic?
Share the message that the sky isn’t falling. Go about life with common sense and compassion, not fear. Covid-19 is a global health threat and we need to treat it with due concern. But travel bans are not the answer, as WHO has said, albeit quietly. Instead, conduct exit screening at airports and transport terminals, as well as on arrival. Wash our hands regularly, eat sensibly and exercise our bodies and, importantly, our minds. Only wear a mask when we have flu-like symptoms so there are sufficient supplies for medical workers. Let’s not make this worse than it needs to be!