When we stop hoping for a return to normal, we can start beating the pandemic

Embracing the new normal has become something of a mantra for government and business leaders when discussing the pandemic. But like many slogans, it quickly becomes meaningless unless there is a genuine commitment to it. For a handful of economies in the Asia Pacific region, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia prominent amongst them, the overriding objective seems to be exactly the opposite – a return to the “old normal” no matter what the cost.

Embracing the new normal can only begin with the acceptance that COVID-19 and its myriad variants could be with us for a long time, especially given the uncontrolled spread of the virus in massive populaces such as India and Brazil.  The new normal is about learning to live with COVID and using technology and best practice to keep its impact at manageable levels, not unlike other viral scourges. It is about suppressing community transmission so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed. Crucially, and this is the hard part for many of our political leaders, it is also about accepting that people will continue to die from COVID-related illnesses, especially those with certain preconditions.

So, what might a new normal look like?  Here are some of the characteristics:  

• Ongoing low levels of COVID in the community, with occasional spikes in transmission,
• A global humanitarian approach to vaccine production, distribution and administration 
• Mandatory vaccinations and booster shots, exempting those with medical issues,
• Enhanced digital tracking to enable fast and efficient contact tracing, 
• A universal system of digital health records to enable seamless and safe travel, and 
• Rapid response plans – including mask wearing and social distancing – to counter spikes.

Achieving this type of new normal is well within our means. It would enable countries around the world to safely breathe life back into industries, livelihoods and lives ravaged by the pandemic. It would stop the haemorrhaging of public funds into job protection programs and the dangerous accumulation of public debt. Flattening the curve, not the economy, is just as relevant today.  

It also involves some tough but necessary action on issues such as mandatory vaccinations. Curiously, most adults don’t quibble when it comes to vaccinating their children against polio, hepatitis, measles and mumps, so why the hesitation now when it offers our best route to saving lives? We also need to assuage legitimate concerns about the data privacy risks associated with contact tracing and digital health records, and we can. As with most issues, the possible responses are not binary. If our leaders apply the science and smart technology with a healthy dose of common sense and respect for community values and concerns, the new normal is well within our grasp.

Which is why it’s so hard to fathom the logic of countries seemingly hell-bent on a zero-case prescription that is unenforceable and out-of-step with the rest of the world.  Of the more than 3 million deaths attributed to COVID-19, less than 1,000 have been recorded in Australia, just over 200 in Hong Kong and only 31 in Singapore. And yet Australia has suggested it might not reopen its borders until mid-2022 and a long-anticipated travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore has just stalled for a second time.  Remarkably, the trigger point for the collapse of the Hong Kong-Singapore bubble is just five unlinked local cases per day, over a 7-day period, in either destination. Yes, only five cases! 

Meanwhile, the US and the UK, countries that have recorded massively higher death tolls even on a per capita basis, are progressively allowing their citizens to travel abroad to selected destinations, with sensible caveats, for business and leisure. The UK has published a list of Green Zone countries that Brits can travel to and return home without quarantine, provided they can produce a negative test result. Australia is on the list, but its border is firmly shut. 

So why is this happening?  Why are these otherwise rational governments adopting such a counter-productive fortress mentality and focusing so myopically on elimination strategies?  I believe there are at least five reasons.

An obvious one is the low rate of vaccinations compared to the likes of the UK and US. Ironically, in Hong Kong at least, the successful suppression of the virus has left a sizable proportion of the population in no hurry to be vaccinated.

Another factor, as usual, is political hubris. No national leader wants to be seen to back down after having vowed so strenuously to beat the pandemic and protect their citizens above all else. Unrelenting media coverage of daily COVID case totals means they are now seen alongside public opinion polls as a key barometer of government performance. 

A third reason is that we may have become desensitised to the costs. Two carriers alone – Cathay Pacific and Qantas – have recently flagged a combined annual loss of more than USD 4 billion but unless you are one of the thousands of airline staff to have lost your job, they are just another set of numbers. Free-wheeling public spending on job keeper programs has helped soften the blow for some but the full extent of the damage to vulnerable industries and economies has not been yet been fully understood.

Then there is something that Hong Kong academic Donald Low recently called the “status quo bias”.  It refers to the risk for officials to propose anything but a maintenance of, or quick reversion to, stringent measures even if there is only a relatively minor spike in cases. “If they fail to do this and a subsequent surge in cases reveals they had erred, they would be punished by an unforgiving public.” Low notes than sticking to the status quo is virtually risk-free. “No one is punished for excessive conservatism.”

And finally, there are those within the medical profession whom Australia’s former Chief Medical Officer has admonished for implicitly endorsing elimination policies. Speaking to the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons’ annual scientific meeting, Dr Nick Coatsworth reportedly challenged doctors to smash the “false idol” of COVID-19 eradication and prepare the public for the next critical phase of the pandemic: open international borders and the return of the virus in the community.

“We once again have a responsibility as a profession to calmly reassure the community that vaccines must be taken up when they are offered, that waiting is not a valid option either individually or for the public health, and that ultimately when we allow COVID-19 back on our shores and it circulates in our community, that we are prepared and comfortable for that to happen.”

So, let’s replace flat earth thinking and political grandstanding with a robust debate about what a new normal could look like. The sooner we do, the sooner we can get up off the canvas and start winning the global battle against COVID-19.